New Report Shows Magnitude 6.7 or Greater Quake within 30 yrs. a ‘Certainty’ for California

A new report from the “Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities”, a collection of local and national scientists, geologists, and engineers, states that there is a 99.7% chance of one or more magnitude 6.7 or greater earthquakes striking California within the next 30 years. The report is an alarming reminder that California is right in the center of active earthquake country and that the threat of large quake is a constant danger. The report, which is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey and the California Earthquake Authority, is the most detailed and in depth study of California’s current geological state to date. Because scientists can’t yet accurately predict specific dates, times, and locations for such a quake, the prediction is given in the form of a percentage of likely occurrence, and the predictions are not encouraging (WGCEP 2007 Report).

While the study focused on all of California, the report details the likelihood of a large magnitude quake in both southern and northern California. While the report shows that southern California is slightly more likely to experience such a quake than northern California, the overall conclusion is that a “big one” is coming, and soon. With such a disaster almost certain to occur, the main thrust behind the report focuses on preparing for a big quake. Scientists warn that with such a quake now almost statistically guaranteed, residents and state officials must focus on earthquake preparedness. Aside from stressing the importance of individual preparedness with things like earthquake kits and customized emergency supplies, special importance is being placed on building construction and ways to reduce the billions of dollars in damage that will inevitably result. More frightening is the fact that while a 6.7 has a 99.7% likelihood of occurrence, a 7.5 or greater has a 46% chance of striking in the next 30 years (WGCEP 2007 Report). These numbers are alarming. More importantly, they’re a warning. Now is the time to prepare.

Scientists have essentially warned us that every part of California is at risk for a major quake that is definitely going to strike soon. This is as close as they can come to predicting and warning against an earthquake. The verdict is in; a big one is coming, very soon. So, what can you do to prepare for an earthquake? Earthquake preparedness is important no matter where you are, so you could start by making sure that you have an earthquake kit at home and in your car. Your kit should contain food, water, and shelter supplies to sustain you for at least 72 hours, and possibly longer. You should also consider things like lighting, sanitation, first aid, and a radio. It’s important that your kit contains high quality emergency supplies that cover a broad set of emergency needs. Preparing around the house is key as well. Make sure all of your kits and supplies are stored for quick, easy access and that you and all of your family members have a comprehensive plan to meet or contact in the event a quake strikes when you are separated. These key tips are just the initial aspects of your earthquake emergency plan. As specialists in earthquake preparedness with over 25 years of experience, our duty is to make sure that you are ready for a quake or any other disaster that may strike. Please view our informative guides and kits to see how we can help you prepare.

By Jon Stoll
QuakeKare Press
April 15th 2008

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